The Energy Evolution: An analysis of alternative vehicles and fuels to 2100
The Energy Evolution compares more than 15 of the most promising fuel and vehicle alternatives over a 100-year period, in scenarios where a mix of vehicles is used initially with one fuel and vehicle alternative becomes dominant in the vehicle mix over time. The scenarios evaluate the performance and viability of each alternative in terms of greenhouse gases, oil imports, urban air pollution and societal costs.
A scenario which initially includes a mix of alternative vehicles, and is later dominated by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles sales is the only way to simultaneously:
cut greenhouse gas pollution by 80% below 1990 levels;
reach U.S. petroleum quasi-independence by mid-century;
eliminate nearly all controllable air pollution by the end of the century; and
reduce societal costs by $600 billion per year by 2100. (This scenario includes an important role for a mix of vehicle and fuel alternatives in the near-term.)
The cost of building a national hydrogen fueling infrastructure is more affordable than most people think: $9 billion to add 6,500 hydrogen dispensers to gasoline stations over 10 years. With an aggressive implementation, at the end of this period, hydrogen fuel providers will be making a 10% after-tax return, and overall revenues from hydrogen sales will outpace costs.
Accelerated investment is needed now to ensure that hydrogen vehicles with superior benefits can take over as a part of the evolution from nearer-term, but less capable alternative vehicles.
Some of the 15+ fuel and vehicle combinations
gasoline internal combustion vehicles
gasoline hybrid
electric vehicles
gasoline plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)
ethanol plug-in HEVs
hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles
battery electric vehicles
Plus hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles, gasoline hybrid electric vehicles, diesel HEVs, hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles, and more ...
Process
No new research was done. Instead, the NHA gathered a comprehensive collection of existing peer-reviewed, credible transportation research from organizations such as the U.S. Department of Energy, Argonne National Laboratory, the Electric Power Research Institute, the National Resources Defense Council and the University of California, Davis. The data were run through well-respected models and the results have been reviewed by experts at the following organizations to confirm that the methods and conclusions were sound: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Fuel Cell Council.
The NHA has created two presentations to help you share the conclusions of the Energy Evolution with people who you think need to know. The powerpoint version of these slides with a full script is available by request. Just ask us!
For more information on the work that went into this report, please visit: www.cleancaroptions.com.
